August 13, 2019

Market Outlook

The Australian dollar’s short-term gains reversed on Friday evening following US and global shares market retracing with the S&P500 closing down 0.7%. Trade war concerns were the main driver of global selling following President Trump’s reluctance to form a deal with China.

Week Ahead

Key economic releases from across the globe this week include: Australia: consumer and business confidence figures, wage price index and employment figures; US the inflation rate, retail sales, industrial production, housing data and flash Michigan’s consumer sentiment; UK unemployment, wage growth, inflation and retail sales; Eurozone: Germany Q2 GDP, industrial production, flash employment change and trade balance; Rest of the World: Chinese industrial output, retail sales, fixed asset investment and house price index; Japanese machinery orders and corporate goods prices; Canadian Non-Farm Employment Change.

AUD

The Aussie dollar short-term gains were quickly washed away as trade war concerns still dominate markets with AUD/USD falling 0.2%. Against the British Pound the Australian dollar is approaching its 2019 highs as concerns regarding a no deal Brexit loom.  The RBA has reduced its growth forecast for the Australian economy for 2019 to 2.5% and further reduced its growth expectations for 2020. The ongoing trade war issues means that China will remain in focus this week. Globally exposed currencies like the Aussie dollar will remain at risk of manipulation as a result of ongoing US-China trade woes. Important data in the form of Australian job number due on Thursday this week will be closely watched by market participants and key ahead of the RBA’s meeting next month.

USD

The US dollar continues to remain strong against the Australian dollar with President Trump stating he is “not ready to make a deal” with China. This heaped more uncertainty on global markets causing a drive to safer assets. Against the British Pound the dollar is edging closer to 1.20 driving GBP/USD to a 30-month low. This week sees the US publish data in the form of their inflation rate, retail sales, industrial production, housing data and flash Michigan’s consumer sentiment.

GBP

Friday trading saw GBP fall against a basket of currencies as Q2 growth data reported that the economy had shrunk for the first time since 2012 and Brexit uncertainty still looms. On the back of this news the pound fell against the Aussie Dollar and visited the depths of 1.2028 against the US dollar. Growth for the UK remains above 1% but the recent negative GDP print has alarmed investors who are already poised for the UK to leave the EU this October absent of a trade deal. Data this week from the UK comes in the form of unemployment, wage growth, inflation and retail sales All have the potential to mover the already sensitive British Pound.

EUR

The Aussie dollar has enjoyed a 0.8% appreciation against the Euro and is managing to hold on to key psychological levels. Data out of the Eurozone this week will include Q2 GDP from Germany, industrial production, flash employment change and trade balance figures.

Rest of the World

Strong Canadian employment figures has pushed AUD/CAD to nearly nine-year lows. The spotlight will remain on China this week with industrial production, retail sales and the unemployment figures due out this Wednesday. Meanwhile, in other market news Fitch Ratings Agency raised Russia’s sovereign credit rating on Friday to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-’ citing a stable outlook. They noted that the main drivers behind the upgrade were due to a credible and consistent policy framework that will deliver improved macroeconomic stability. Central banks in New Zealand, India, Thailand and the Philippines all cut interest rates with the RBNZ going with 0.5% markets were not expecting. Strangely, the Australian dollar suffered at the hands of this.

Event Wrap

Monday

JPY – Bank Holiday

Tuesday

AUD – RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speaks

CNY – Foreign Direct Investment (13th – 15th)

CNY – New Loans

CNY – M2 Money Supply

EUR – German Final CPI

EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment

GBP – Average Earnings Index

GBP – Claimant Count Change

GBP – Unemployment Rate

USD – Core CPI

Wednesday

AUD – Westpac Consumer Sentiment

AUD – Wage Price Index

AUD – RBA Assistant Governor Debelle Speaks

CNY – Industrial Production

CNY – Retail Sales

CNY – Unemployment Rate

EUR – German Prelim GDP q/q

EUR – Flash GDP

EUR – Flash Employment Change

EUR – Industrial Production

GBP – CPI

USD – Import Price

Thursday

AUD – RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

AUD – MI Inflation Expectations

AUD – Unemployment Change

AUD – Unemployment Rate

GBP – Retail Sales

CAD – Non-Farm Employment Change

USD – Core Retail Sales

USD – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD – Retail Sales

USD – Empire State Manufacturing Index

USD – Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

USD – Unemployment Claims

USD – Industrial Production

Friday

NZD – Business NZ Manufacturing Index

EUR – Trade Balance

USD – Building Permits

USD – Housing Starts